Britain is voting today on whether to leave the European Union (Brexit) or not.
Is Britain heading for Brexit and what does the UK think of Europe?
Ann Gripper, Mikey Smith, and Dan Bloom, Mirror, 23 June 2016
The polls have now opened for the EU referendum today – and the final week has brought a deluge of polls.
Leave gained ground over the closing stages, with increasing numbers of poll results pointing to Brexit, although generally when undecided voters are excluded.
The Europe question has split the Tory party, with key Conservatives Michael Gove and Boris Johnson part of the Leave campaign and David Cameron avoiding going head to head with any of his fellow Blues.
But as MPs declare which way they will vote, for many voters it is the views of non politically motivated commentators like the verdict of Money Saving Expert Martin Lewis which they are looking to for information rather than spin.
Polls suggest the decision over Britain’s future inside or outside Europe will go to the wire. The bookies have consistently given Remain a bigger lead in the betting than they have in the polls, although Leave shortened in the EU referendum betting odds last week before easing again.
This is what they have been saying so far…
Final polls give Remain lead – YouGov, ComRes Ipsos MORI and Populus published 23 June
The Remain camp swung back into the lead in the three final polls before the EU referendum.
The final poll conducted before polls opened was by Populus for the Financial Times.
The survey of 4,700 people was conducted right up to midnight last night, and put Remain on 55%.
Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?
Remain 55% to Leave 45
(Populus/Financial Times)
Earlier today, Ipsos MORI published a poll for the London Evening Standard, which shows Remain in the lead on 52%.
It was carried out from June 21-22 – right up to 9pm last night – and surveyed 1,592 people.
The poll also found 12% of those surveyed might change their mind in the few short hours before they cast their vote.
Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union? Online poll
(Ipsos MORI/phone)
A survey by ComRes for the Daily Mail and ITV News gave Remain a 6-point lead over Leave – on 48% compared to 42%.
But the phone poll of 1,032 people on June 17-22 also underlined the confusion among voters as 11% of people said they were still undecided.
Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union? Phone poll
Remain 48 to Don’t Know 1 to Leave 142
(Comres for the Daily Mail/ITV)
The final YouGov survey for The Times, which quizzed a massive 3,766 people online on June 20-22, had each side in a dead heat with 45%.
Yet far more of the 8% who were ‘don’t knows’ said they would probably end up picking Remain – meaning it gains the lead in the final result, 51%/49%.
A YouGov spokesman said: “Our current polling suggests the race is too close to call, but the recent trend has been towards Remain, just as other referendums in the past have shown late movement towards the status quo.
“In this poll we asked people who said they didn’t know how they would vote which way they were leaning and re-allocated them on that basis, an adjustment that increased the position of Remain by a point.”
But the spokesman warned: “It is still possible that people will change their mind on the day.”
Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union? Online poll
Remain 45 to Don’t Know 8 to Leave 45
(YouGov/Times)
Leave gets the edge – TNS & Opinium published 22 June
Two official surveys were published in quick succession on Wednesday night, hours before voters go to the polls.
And they show both camps neck and neck – but with Leave in the lead.
A TNS online poll of 2,320 people on June 16-22 showed a two-point lead for Brexit – with Leave on 43% and Remain on 41%.
Some 11% of voters still said they don’t know while another 5% said they don’t intend to vote.
Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?
(ORB/Telegraph)
An Opinium poll of 3,011 people from June 20-22, again online, put Leave on 45% and Remain on 44%.
But it found far more people expect the Remain camp to triumph tomorrow (46%) than the Brexit camp (27%). Another 27% don’t know how it will do.
Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?
Remain 46% to Don’t Know 1% to Leave 53%
(ORB/Telegraph)
‘Down to the wire’ – YouGov & ORB published 21 June
Two days before the referendum, one poll gave Remain a seven-point lead – while another handed a two-point boost to Leave.
Tory election guru Sir Lynton Crosby said the up-and-down polls showed the referendum will “truly come down to the wire.”
An ORB poll of 800 people for the Telegraph showed 53% of people who will definitely vote would chose Remain, compared to 46% for Leave.
Among all voters Remain had a smaller two-point lead of 49% to 47% for Leave.
Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?
Remain 46% to Don’t Know 1% to Leave 53%
(ORB/Telegraph)
A separate YouGov online poll of 1,652 people for The Times put Leave two points ahead on 44%, with Remain on 42%.
The survey, carried out on June 17-19, found more voters distrust George Osborne over the vote (73%) than Nigel Farage (63%).
Some 64% of Labour voters said they wanted to remain while 26% said they wanted to leave.
YouGov’s poll tracker put Leave back in the lead(Read more here.)